Constrained MDPs and the reward hypothesis

-
It's been a looong ago that I posted on this blog. But this should not mean the blog is dead. Slow and steady wins the race, right? Anyhow, I am back and today I want to write about constrained Markovian Decision Process (CMDPs). The post is prompted by a recent visit of Eugene Feinberg , a pioneer of CMDPs, of our department, and also by a growing interest in CMPDs in the RL community (see this , this , or this paper). For impatient readers, a CMDP is like an MDP except that there are multiple reward functions, one of which is used to set the optimization objective, while the others are used to restrict what policies can do. Now, it seems to me that more often than not the problems we want to solve are easiest to specify using multiple objectives (in fact, this is a borderline tautology!). An example, which given our current sad situation is hard to escape, is deciding what interventions a government should apply to limit the spread of a virus while maintaining economic
6 comments

Pitfalls of optimality in statistics

-
I was reading a little bit about robust statistics, as we are in the process of putting together a paper about entropy estimation where robustness comes up as an issue. While searching on the net for the best material to understand this topic (I am thinking about posting another article about what I have found), I have bumped into a nice paper (downloadable from here) by Peter J. Huber, one of the main figures in robust statistics, where he talks about a bunch of pitfalls around pursuing optimality in statistics. Huber writes eloquently -- he gives plenty of examples, motivates definitions. He is just great. I can only recommend this paper or his book. Now, what are the pitfalls he writes about? He distinguishes 4 types with the following syndromes:
  • The fuzzy concepts syndrome: sloppy translation of concepts into mathematics. Think about uniform vs. non-uniform convergence (sloppy asymptotics). In statistics a concrete example is the concept of efficiency which is defined in a non-uniform manner with respect to the estimable parameters, which allows for (weird) "super-efficient" estimators that pay special attention to some distinguished element of the parameter-space.
  • The straitjacket syndrome: the use of overly restrictive side conditions, such as requiring that an estimator is unbiased or equivariant (equivariant estimates in high dimensions are inadmissible in very simple situations). In Bayesian statistics another example might be the convenient but potentially inappropriate conjugate priors.
  • The scapegoat syndrome: confusing the model with reality (offering the model for the gods of statistics instead of the real thing, hoping that they will accept it). The classic example is the Eddington-Fisher argument. Eddington advocated the mean-absolute-deviation (MAD) instead of the root-mean-square (RMS) deviation as a measure of scale. Fisher argued that MAD estimates are highly inefficient (converge slowly) relative to the RMS deviation estimates if the sample comes from a normal distribution. Tukey has shown that the situation gets reversed even under small deviations from a normal model. The argument that under narrow conditions one estimator is better than some other should not be even made. Another example is perhaps classical optimal design and the fundamentalist approach in Bayesian statistics. Of course, there is nothing wrong with assumptions, but the results should be robust.
  • The souped-up car syndrome: by optimizing for speed we can end up with an elaborate gas-guzzler. Optimizing for one quantity (efficiency) may degrade another one (robustness). Practical solutions must find a balance between such contradicting requirements.
These syndromes are also everywhere in machine learning research. Wear protective gear as needed!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Constrained MDPs and the reward hypothesis

-
Image
It's been a looong ago that I posted on this blog. But this should not mean the blog is dead. Slow and steady wins the race, right? Anyhow, I am back and today I want to write about constrained Markovian Decision Process (CMDPs). The post is prompted by a recent visit of Eugene Feinberg , a pioneer of CMDPs, of our department, and also by a growing interest in CMPDs in the RL community (see this , this , or this paper). For impatient readers, a CMDP is like an MDP except that there are multiple reward functions, one of which is used to set the optimization objective, while the others are used to restrict what policies can do. Now, it seems to me that more often than not the problems we want to solve are easiest to specify using multiple objectives (in fact, this is a borderline tautology!). An example, which given our current sad situation is hard to escape, is deciding what interventions a government should apply to limit the spread of a virus while maintaining economic
Read more

Bayesian Statistics in Medical Clinical Trials

-
I came across a very interesting document. The document is titled " Guidance for the Use of Bayesian Statistics in Medical Device Clinical Trials ". It is a draft guidelines poster by the Center for Devices and Radiological Health of FDA, dated May 23, 2006. Why is this interesting? The job of FDA (the US Food and Drug Administration) is to make sure that the decisions in any clinical trial are made in a scientifically sound manner. Clearly, when following the Bayesian approach the choice of the prior and the model can influence the decisions. What does FDA do in this situation? The establish a process where they require a pre-specification (and agreement on) both the prior and the model, including an analysis of the operating characteristics of the design. This latter includes estimating the probability of erroneously approving an ineffective or unsafe device (the Type I error). This will typically be done by conducting Monte-Carlo simulations, where the Type I error is
Read more

Keynote vs. Powerpoint vs. Beamer

-
A few days ago I decided to give Keynote , Apple's presentation software, a try (part of iWork '09). Beforehand I used MS Powerpoint 2003, Impress from NeoOffice 3.0 (OpenOffice's native Mac version) and LaTeX with beamer . Here is a comparison of the ups and downs of these software, mainly to remind myself when I will reconsider my choice in half a year and also to help people decide what to use for their presentation. Comments, suggestions, critics are absolutely welcome, as usual. Btw, while preparing this note I have learned that go-oo.org has a native Mac Aqua version of OpenOffice. Maybe I will try it some day and update the post. It would also be good to include a recent version of Powerpoint in the comparison. Stability Keynote: Excellent After a few days of usage, so take this statement with a grain of salt.. MS Powerpoint 2003: Excellent Impress: Poor Save your work very often Beamer: Excellent Creating visually appealing slides, graphics on slides Keynote: Ex
Read more